Market modelling shows: while the total German surplus for export is considerably reduced the export of electricity from the 50Hertz control area continues to increase.
The German electricity surplus for export that can be observed at present will drop substantially. In some scenarios, Germany will even tend to be a net importer of electrical energy. The 50Hertz control area, on the other hand, clearly remains a net exporter of electricity in all energy transition scenarios. This is because market modelling shows that if the current objectives of the federal government are implemented, eastern Germany will have high capacities of renewable energy installations (RES installations) in 2035 because of the available space and the high solar and wind output.
The necessity of grid expansion measures was analysed extensively: the grid expansion measures planned by 50Hertz for the coming years are necessary and future-oriented.
For all five studied scenarios, extensive grid analyses and grid planning were carried out in accordance with the usual planning criteria. Furthermore, sensitivity calculations were used to study important ongoing social discussions, including a possible nationwide increase in small storage units, a regionally diversified installation of gas power plants as well as an early lignite exit. The results clearly indicate that by the year 2035, regardless of the further development of the energy transition, the grid expansion projects 50Hertz is currently realising or has planned for the coming years (measures under the BBPIG 3 and EnLAG 4) are necessary. Even in case of a lignite exit by 2035, the grid expansion measures planned by 50Hertz for the coming years are still necessary.
Grid development at 50Hertz is almost exclusively limited to existing routes, with a few exceptions for the planned HVDC transmission line.
In all scenarios, the majority of grid development measures either through grid reinforcement or new constructions can use the existing routes. However, for the new HVDC transmission line from Wolmirstedt to Isar and from Güstrow to Wolmirstedt, a new route is needed. The current length of the 50Hertz transmission system only increases slightly - from the current 10,000 kilometres to between 10,300 and 10,500 kilometres in 2035.